Q2 GDP Reading Surprises Most

On Friday, the Commerce Department confirmed that Q2 GDP growth was 1.6%. Many of the details pointed to good news for the U.S. Economy. With inflation almost non-existent the report also shows that year over year the economy is up 3.0% Reading surprised almost all analysts to on the upside.

Many stock traders focused on the U.S. final sales number of the report. Real final sales to domestic purchasers was revised up to 4.3% from the initial estimate of 4.1%

So even though overall economic growth slowed from the first quarter's 3.7% pace, domestic demand was actually stronger-4.3% compared to 1.3% in the first quarter.

In summary, the latest GDP revisions report is quite supportive of continued recovery for the U.S. economy for the foreseeable future.

30 year fixed rates -- now below 4.4% -- Should you refi yet again?!

How low can they go?

Mortgage rates managed to reach yet another low this week, with the 30-year fixed rate now costing borrowers less than 4.4% for the first time in history.

Freddie Mac (FMCC) said on Thursday that the average rate for traditional 30-year fixed mortgages fell to an average of 4.36%, the ninth decline over the past 10 weeks.

Fixed mortgages with a 15-year duration also fell to a historic low of 3.86% and adjustable-rate mortgages, which have shorter terms of one or five years continue hovering near 3.5%.

The sharp decline is a reflection of three factors: Ongoing stress in the housing market, regulatory policies aimed at spurring demand and an increasing belief on Wall Street that deflation (and inflation) is basically non-existent.

"...long-term bond yields fell to the lowest levels since January 2009, allowing fixed mortgage rates to ease to new record lows this week," said Amy Crew Cutts, Freddie's deputy chief economist.

In response to the low rate that Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday that in its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 20, 2010 the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

"The volume of refi applications last week was up 26% over their level four weeks ago. Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in the survey, going back to 1990," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. "We are at a new 15 month high for the Refinance index. With rates this low, many borrowers who refinanced in the past two years may well have an incentive to refinance again, and this is likely increasing refi application activity."

Stimulus May Have Added 3.3M Jobs

The economic stimulus package may have added as many as 3.3 million jobs to the economy during the second quarter of this year and according to the independent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) may have prevented the nation from lapsing back into recession. The report was released by the CBO on Tuesday.

The details of the CBO report said that the stimulus lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 and 1.8% in the second quarter and increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million.

The budget office said the act also increased the nation's GDP by between 1.7% and 4.5% in the second quarter of the year.

Leveraged Buyouts Reach $42B Year to Date

The big banks are now openly seeking out deals to back once again. And in response, some savvy private equity firms have sought to accelerate what they do best -- acquiring firms and then reselling those companies at a premium.

Following retrenchment in activity in 2009, this year buyout firms have been seeking to put their billions of dollars in untapped investor capital to use by taking on additional risk.

For instance on Friday, the Blackstone Group, one of the largest private equity holding companies, agreed to buy Dynegy, the Houston power company. The price tag -- $4.7B -- the largest of the year.

According to Thomson Reuters that brings the total for leveraged buyouts to just over $42B in calendar year 2010.

Friday's transaction continues to remind us that big money is betting on a world economy that grows steadily well into next year.

General Motors: "Extraordinary Turnaround"

On Thursday, General Motors Corp. posted its best quarterly profit in six years in one of the clearest signs yet the ailing automaker (and its beleaguered industry) is on a road to recovery.

The record profits were posted slightly more than 12 months after a steep drop-off in sales caused by the financial crisis of 2008/2009.

GM says that the strong profits will pave the way for the company file for an IPO and begin to rid itself of a more than US$50-billion taxpayer liability -- company equity that is majority owned by the U.S. government.

Total second-quarter earnings came in at US$1.3-billion, a huge reversal from the US$12.9-billion it lost in the same period a year ago. Revenue jumped 44% to US$33.2-billion during the quarter.

Last year the government had estimated that it would take perhaps 8 years for the GM to pay taxpayers back. The quick GM rebound however has surprised even the most optimistic of forecasts.

“Given the extraordinary turnaround — frankly, faster and better than what we had imagined — I think the IPO could be very successful if the overall markets co-operate,” Steven Rattner, the Obama administration’s former Car Czar, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Retail Sales Continue at a Steady, Healthy Year over Year Rate

Retail sales continued at a steady pace in the Aug. 7 week according to Redbook's tally on Tuesday. The Redbook report shows a plus 3.0% year-on-year pace, unchanged from the prior week.

According to a similar measure from ICSC-Goldman on Tuesday the year-on-year pace currently is at 3.7%. The Goldman report sees the full-month pace coming in at a year-on-year rate of plus 3.0%.

Retail sales under-girds much of U.S. GDP growth. In July (and now into August), the growth rate has been quite steady in the moderate 3% range.

Fears Continue to Subside As Positive Data Kick-starts August

Market fear continues to subside drastically following a peak six weeks ago. Fear about the insolvency of European banks -- which was a basic staple of bear analysts has now proven itself to be grossly overblown. And as the fear about Europe has subsided so has the VIX S&P Volality Index

(chart source: yahoo finance)

The index -- which appeared to be on its way to 50 at the height of the European Crisis -- now appears to be headed for the teens again.

And there were plenty of signs this week that August news will continue to calm the markets.

1.  The Institute for Supply Management released 2 reports this past week.  Pointed to continued growth in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing service sectors.

2.  Construction spending -- which was forecast to decrease -- actually increased during the June reporting period.

3.  Domestic motor vehicle sales for July came in stronger than most economists had predicted.

4.  According to the most reliable retail indices, the retail sector (which accounts for nearly three quarters of the US GDP) continues to growth at a healthy rate between three and four percent year over year.

5.  The mortgage purchase index for the purchase of new homes has now been up for three weeks in a row.  Refinancing and purchase interest rates continue to fall.

6.  Although jobs creation is always the last sign of a healthy recovery, the private sector is now clearly beginning to add jobs -- ADP reports + 42,000 private sector additions and the U.S. government calculated 71,000 additions in July.  The return to jobs growth can be argued as the quickest return to growth from a recession than at any point in modern U.S. history.

7.  It is now clear -- as evidenced by earnings calls and transcripts -- that the majority of U.S. businesses have returned to profitability.  Not only have the majority report Q2 results better than expected, but the majority now forecast continued growth and profitability into the end of the year.

And investors are finally starting to agree with the positive business assessment.  Not only is the VIX index on a steady decline, but stock markets finished the first week of August up nearly 2 percent for the week and over 6 percentage points year to date.

U.S. Manufacturing Grows 12m Straight; Jobs Up in Sector 8m in a Row

The ISM released its manufacturing report on business on Monday. Their index continued to show healthy growth in the sector. Perhaps even more encouraging is the employment growth measured in the report. It now registers an increase in jobs for 8 straight months and now at an accelerated pace.

Manufacturing continued to grow in July as their PMI registered 55.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

According to their report on business: "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through July (58 percent) corresponds to a 5.4 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for July (55.5 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.5 percent increase in real GDP annually."

Flu down; Profit Up at Aetna

On Tuesday Aetna Inc. lifted its 2010 earnings forecast a second time after the firm reported milder-than-expected flu season. The good news about flu this year tacked one more positive in an earnings season that has been dominated by profit results and increasingly positive projections.

The firm now projects that their operating earnings may reach $3.05 to $3.15 a share in the upcoming quarter. That’s significantly up from their earlier forecast of $2.75 to $2.85 in April.

In further positive economic stimulus, Aetna's Chief Financial Officer Joseph Zubretsky said that in addition to healthy profit for the firm in the second half of 2010, the company will also increase their spending to upgrade computer systems.

For the 2Q 2010, net income rose 42 percent to $491 million easily topping most medical market analyst expectations.

Source:  Aetna

Investors Continue Focus On Earnings

U.S. stocks surged last week following yet another strong batch of earnings.

Earnings results from heavy weights such as Caterpillar (CAT), 3M (MMM), UPS (UPS) and AT&T (T) all topped earnings estimates and raised their outlooks.

Some economists pointed to data that seemed to show some weakness. Weekly jobless claims jumped, but it may have been due to seasonal factors.

The markets have been trying to sort out all the data and it seems that for now investors have decided that the positive corporate earnings from so many sectors do not indicate a slowdown in the economic recovery. And even if there is some weak elements, those are not affecting companies' profits in general.

For the week the S&P 500 index was up nearly 3%.

Rates Continue Down; Loan Applications Up

For those folks looking to refinance or purchase, the news on Wednesday continues to be nothing but positive.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that their refinancing index jumped 8.6% in the July 16 week, making for a nearly 30% gain over the past four weeks. The average 30-year mortgage fell 10 basis points in the week to 4.59%, the lowest ever in the survey.

Low rates continue to be a consistant positive for home sales. The MBAs purchase index also rose -- up 3.4%. Much of the demand was driven by government loans which have low down-payments.

Wednesday's report, along with Tuesday's rise in applications for housing permits, are indisputable good news for the housing sector.

James Altucher versus Dr. Doom (Winner: James)

Many of you will remember last year when we ask Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini to take a seat already!  As most of you know Dr. Doom is just that -- a Doomster -- a perma-pessimist.  Sadly (and mistakenly), because he is always calling for the worst, he is credited with correctly calling the credit crisis and the ensuing recession.  (and will likely be given credit for any other downward trends in the future!)

Fortunately we do currently have more level heads among us. One of those level heads is James Altucher. Forget Dr. Doom and do your homework on James and his columns and interviews.

In this interview with Dow Jones, James gives 7 reasons why the S&P index is headed for 1500.

And in this one, James takes on Dr. Doom and scores knock-out, after knock-out punches.

Enjoy!

Historic Financial Overhaul Begins Now

On Thursday, the U.S. Congress gave final approval to one of the most massive overhauls of country's financial regulation ever. The legislative action ended more than a year of political disagreements over the scope of the new regulations.

The new law establishes an independent consumer bureau within the Federal Reserve to monitor against abuses in mortgage, credit card and several other types of lending.

President Obama is scheduled to sign the legislation next week. On Thursday after Senate passage of the bill, he said that the bill will "protect consumers and lay the foundation for a stronger and safer financial system, one that is innovative, creative, competitive, and far less prone to panic and collapse."

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), who was one of the Senate's driving forces behind the bill, said that "more than anything else, my goal was, from the very beginning, to create a structure and an architecture reflective of the 21st century in which we live, but also one that would rebuild that trust and confidence."

In addition to the Presidential and Senate praise Thursday, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner held a rare news conference lauding the bill.

Earnings For S&P 500 Firms Still Increasing

Earnings for members of the Standard & Poor's 500 are expected to increase another 27% from a year earlier and their associated revenues are seen to also rise -- perhaps another 9%, said Thomson Reuters last week. Actual earnings season for Q2, begins shortly...

In the first quarter of 2010, S&P 500 firms' earnings increased 57%. It was the second quarter in a row that the S&P 500 recorded earnings growth. If the predictions are correct, it will represent three quarters in a row of year over year increases. Those increases follow a record nine straight quarters of year-over-year declines prior to that.

Industry sectors like materials, energy, information technology and consumer discretionary segments are all predicted to have very healthy earnings growth rates.

European Cash Needs Overblown

Negative moods in Europe are finally being calmed by news on Wednesday that the European Central Bank will likely lend less money than expected for the next three months. The data suggests that region's banks' cash needs were wildly overblown again by the crisis fear-mongers.

"The result of the ECB's money market operations indicated that money markets have been less distorted than originally feared," BNP Paribas said in a note. BNP Paribas is considered the leading financial group of the eurozone.

Also providing a hopeful sign, Germany's unemployment rate declined to 7.5% in June thanks not only to the traditional springtime upturn, but also an improving economy, according to the country's labor agency report. They released data showing that the jobless rate was down from 7.7% in May.

The German data raised hopes on Wednesday that consumer spending in Europe's biggest economy will help the region, a zone where doomsters have suggested that severe spending cuts will darken the growth outlook.

The European reality now mirrors what most analysts now recognize in the U.S. economic prognostications. "The U.S. economy has stabilized in the near term," said Castor Pang, director of research at Cinda International. "Maybe the U.S. markets are overreacting a little."

Consumers Score Another 2010 Trifecta

Income, Spending, and Saving All Grow in May

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis the month of May provided a triplet of economic good news -- personal income, spending, and savings all grew. Furthermore, income grew even greater than consumer expenditures and consequently, savings grew as well.

All three measures added similar gains in March of this year.

Personal income has remained fairly stable over the past three months, growing between 0.4% and 0.5%. Over the same period, disposable income has averaged about 0.5% growth. For consumers to be able to spend more on discretionary purchases, their disposable income must of course increase.

Spending has been less stable, recently. In February and March we finally saw spending growth increasing, after the recessionary downward trend of 2009.   The first uptick however post-recession had consumers increasing spend without as much additional income, which meant shoppers were relying more on credit to spend and saving less. In April, however, that changed. Spending was constant, while income continued to grow. And in May? We're now seeing an even better reading: more income growth, but with some additional spending as well.

Geithner: "Unpopular 2009 Actions Were The Right Thing To Do"

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said credit availability is improving and companies are building up unprecedented cash reserves, signs that the U.S. economy continues on a path of increased growth.

Further the Secretary claimed on Tuesday that the government’s management of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program has yield the desire results while costing much less than originally estimated. The unpopular program he claims “played a critical role” in loosening access to credit and putting the economy back on a solid footing.

“Credit conditions overall, which dragged our economy into a deep recession in 2007, no longer pose an obstacle to growth,” Geithner said in his testimony to the Congressional Oversight Panel. Geithner pointed to U.S. firms that are now raising money in capital markets “and have built up record cash reserves, which will eventually be reinvested and fuel growth.”

The TARP program was criticized by both Democratic and Republican lawmakers as favoring Wall Street over small businesses. Many thought the government would likely lose all of the $700 billion lawmakers had allocated to rescue large banks as well as several U.S. automakers and housing loan backers.

Surprisingly, the cost to taxpayers has now plummeted to $105 billion at last estimate, down from an estimate of $341 billion in August. And it seems now that the benefits have thus far continued to outweigh the cost of the program.

Congress authorized TARP in October 2008 to prevent a collapse of the U.S. financial system. Against the predictions of many, companies like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. that borrowed funds have since repaid the government with interest. Additionally because of the return to more palatable market conditions, Geithner said the Treasury plans to sell the remainder of its stake in Citigroup Inc. in an “orderly fashion” by year end, further reducing the overall cost of the rescue program.

In additional good news, prospects for the government’s investments in the auto industry have improved, and the Treasury plans to begin to recover its stake in General Motors Co. after the company has an initial public offering later this year or in 2011.

Losses from government investments in GMAC Inc. “will be less than forecast last year,” the Secretary said.

Geithner said the Obama administration doesn’t plan to extend TARP past its Oct. 3 expiration and called Tuesday’s hearing “a eulogy” for the program.

The TARP loans “did what they were supposed to do,” Geithner continued. The economy wouldn’t have started to rebound “without the dramatic actions we took, however unpopular, to bring down the cost of credit and stabilize the system.”

U.S. Consumer Spending Power Increases

Over the last two months, consumer spending power has increased and not just because of income gains. The U.S. dollar actually goes farther these days as prices have dropped on average in the past two months.

Many argue that prices are down largely because of gasoline prices. However, in May overall inflation declined 0.2%, following the -0.1% measure in April. These latest cost of living adjustments are in line with what most economists were expecting and point to good news for consumers -- provided the labor picture continues to improve.

As has been the trend since May of last year, this past week saw several indications that labor indeed will continue to improve. On Thursday the conference board released the leading economic indicators. The most substantial gain in the May report was the factory work-week. The indicators underscored another release on Wednesday which illustrated that overall industrial production in May surged 1.2%, following a 0.7% boost the month before. The production numbers continue to beat forecast -- this month above the +1.0% consensus estimate.

Post Stimulus: Home Buyers Now Phoning Their Bankers Again

On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 11, 2010. Their Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 17.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 29.7% compared with the previous week.

Their Refinance Index increased 21.1% from the previous week. It was the highest Refinance Index recorded in the survey since May 2009.

"Mortgage applications for home purchases increased last week, the first increase in over a month. Refinance applications also picked up significantly over the week," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.

Purchase applications dropped sharply as a result of the tax credit expiration, but with rates continuing at historic lows and the spring buying season in full swing applications are rebounding sharply.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is now up 3.8% and the average is now up 5.5% for the Refinance Index.

U.S. Consumers Confidence Highest in Over 2 Years

On Friday the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index indicated that spenders mood is at its highest level since January 2008. Since its low late in the recession, the measure has now risen by more than one-third.

One measure which records expected economic conditions advanced by 2.8% -- now up increase by 43.7% from its 2008 low. The readings for expected change in personal finances and expected five-year business conditions also both improved.

Another measure which registers sentiment about current economic conditions improved to the highest level since early-2008 and it was up 44.2% from the 2008 low. Consumers expectations for price inflation during the next year fell sharply.

The increases topped even the most optimistic of economists' predictions for gains for the period. The report, because of its strength, continues to point to steady underlying improvement in the jobs market.